Let’s see what changes took place over the day in the positions of oil market participants.
So, to recap, yesterday, according to the CME Group data, the open interest in oil contracts was 1091769 for call options and 755549 for put options. The buy/sell ratio was at the level of 1.45.
Today the total value of open interest has slightly increased and totaled 1879289 contracts (yesterday it was 1847318). At the same time, the buy/sell ratio has dropped to 1.42 (yesterday it was 1.45).
The CFD market sentiment on Brent oil has also become less optimistic today, although in general the ratio of buy positions to sell positions averages 57/43 (yesterday it was 60 to 40).
As already mentioned, according to the International Energy Agency’s data, the projected price level for Brent for the second and third quarters of 2024 is in the range of 83 to 85 dollars per barrel. Thus, we can say that the current price level is slightly above these boundaries and the further uptrend is experiencing increasing resistance of a technical nature. In addition, the current price is now moving towards the local high of May 29, which is a level of technical resistance.
In general, the bullish sentiment towards Brent Crude Oil prices remains in force, but signs of a fading uptrend and an upcoming downward pullback are beginning to emerge.
Therefore, for now, it is better to remain cautious and continue to buy Brent with a likely target of $86.0 per barrel.
The overall recommendation is to buy Brent oil after correction to $85.0 per barrel. If such correction does not happen, it is better to refrain from the transaction.
Profit could be taken at the level of 86.00. A Stop-Loss may be set at 83.5.
The possible loss should not exceed 2% of your deposit funds.
